The Dominance of Mobile Broadband Technologies within the Next Decade
June 2, 2010 7 Comments
I Just finished reviewing a not surprising report from WiseHarbor Research on the dominance of mobile broadband, including LTE, HSPA, WiMax and CDMA2000 1x EV-DO technologies during the next ten years.
According to the report, mobile broadband technologies will bridge the digital divide through the current decade for Internet and data communications by 2020 and will follow the lead that GSM and CDMA2000 1x achieved in the voice and text space.
WiseHarbor noted that LTE will mirror the success of GSM technologies, but that it won’t be until 2016 before LTE accounts for more than 25% of mobile broadband device sales, and that it won’t match device sales from CDMA-based technologies and HSPA/HSPA+ technologies combined until 2019.
The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the world in mobile broadband and LTE device sales beginning next year, according to the report, which added that developed nations will lead in devices sold per capita. Device revenues from handsets, wireless modems and embedded modules is expected to peak in 2015 before being hit by falling selling prices and saturated demand. Revenue growth will then come from non-traditional devices that will see an increase in connectivity options.
WiseHarbor also noted that the growth of the TD-LTE standard will result in the demise of WiMAX beginning in the second half of the decade.
The report further explains whereas WiMAX has made significant commercial progress by occupying the unpaired spectrum that tends to be much cheaper than the paired spectrum used for CDMA-based technologies including EV-DO and HSPA, TD-LTE will eclipse WiMAX by prevailing in the use of unpaired spectrum as well as the paired spectrum already employed commercially by LTE . Commitment to TD-LTE by China Mobile in particular and significant commonalities between LTE technologies and manufactured products with TDD and FDD modes will marginalize WiMAX in the marketplace over the next few years.
Given Clearwire just rolled out their 4G network using WiMax technology in DC region, I wonder what they have to say about this.